I looked at just how many weekly product conversion out of levonorgestrel disaster birth-control in the usa per 1000 feminine old fifteen-forty-two. We reviewed such each week conversion analysis that with a keen autoregressive incorporated moving average (ARIMA) regression to choose if merchandising conversion away from levonorgestrel emergency contraceptive somewhat improved from inside the examined vacation symptoms. Just after application of very first distinctions, the brand new series was fixed.
Brand new presumption out of extra sales pursuing the New year holiday was predicated on several you are able to exposure things (increased sexual conclusion, reduced the means to access birth prevention throughout the intercourse, enhanced rates off sexual violence, and you will possibly restricted usage of birth control)
The newest ARIMA modeling process includes about three iterative measures: character, estimate, and you will diagnostic examining.47 According to the you are able to ARIMA patterns known away from examination of the latest autocorrelation and you may partial autocorrelation attributes, design group of an optimum design is often according to minimizing Akaike suggestions standards and you will Schwartz bayesian criterion. The selected design that individuals projected is an ARIMA(step 1,step one,1).
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